Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division
DATE: 19JUN2020

Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati and Turkish-Saudi economic relations?
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Yemen - Cease fire ends today

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - Cease fire ends today
DATE: 23APR2020

The two-week cease-fire declared by Saudi Arabia on 09APR is due to expire on April 23, not coincidentally the anticipated start of the holy month of Ramadan. The Saudis asserted at the outset that they were motivated by a desire to re-focus energies on combatting the threat of coronavirus in Yemen…
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Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - Saudis see an exit but talks won’t resolve conflict
DATE: 15APR2020

During the Munich Security Conference in February 2020, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, signaled that the Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks were not “ready to move to the highest level.” However, the situation changed following the Houthi ballistic missile attack…
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Yemen - Houthi gains put Marib at serious risk

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - Houthi gains put Marib at serious risk
DATE: 16MAR2020

Just a week after Houthi rebels took control of al-Hazm, the capital of al-Jawf Province, on March 1, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths paid an unprecedented, one-day visit to the Houthis’ likely next target, oil-and-gas-rich Marib, reiterating the urgent need for de-escalation. “Fighting needs to stop now,” Griffiths said in a joint press conference with Marib Governor Sheikh Sultan al-Aradah. “We will either silence the guns and resume the political process, or we will…
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Yemen - rise of non-state actors

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - rise of non-state actors
DATE: 23DEC2019

Throughout 2019, non-state actors in Yemen were able to strategically improve their overall positions by using tactical military interventions and mediation efforts to their advantage. In the North, the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which overthrew the government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi in 2014, re-asserted their monopoly of violence over…
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Yemen - War primer

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - Background on the war
DATE: 26SEP2019

Many international commentators continue to present the war in Yemen through the lens of Saudi Arabian intervention or sectarian conflict. This narrative has even influenced the US Congress, where some members have passed legislation that rests on the assumption that the war is between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, rather than…
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Yemen’s 60-yr old war

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen’s 60-yr old war
DATE: 06DEC2018

What are the prospects for peace in war-torn Yemen? How important is Iran to the peace process?

Restoring security and stability in Yemen is going to be a long-term process. Successful peace negotiations — including a ceasefire and confidence-building measures — can only be a first step toward that broader objective. Ending the fighting will require that all parties — the government backed by a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis with their Iranian supporters…
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Pakistan’s prime minister visits allies for aid

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Pakistan’s prime minister visits allies for aid
DATE: 29OCT2020

Later this week Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, will travel to China, the second foreign country he has visited since assuming office in August. The main purpose of his travel is the same as for his recent trip to Saudi Arabia: to acquire financial assistance to shore up a hemorrhaging Pakistan economy…
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Iran - subverting Saudi Arabia from within

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran - subverting Saudi Arabia from within
DATE: 10JAN2017

In fresh evidence that the government of Iran continues its efforts to undermine Saudi stability and security from within, a Saudi court has convicted a Saudi businessman of plotting with the government of Iran to…
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Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
DATE: 21MAR2016

The ongoing reduction in hostilities on the ground has transformed broader conflict dynamics across Syria, empowering Syria’s populist protest movement; eroding the success of al-Qaida’s strategic long game approach; and providing openings for a broader fight against ISIS…
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Yemen - positive signs?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016

Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in…
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