Yemen - positive signs?
21/03/16 06:15 Filed in:
yemen | houthi | saudi arabia | syria | iranAX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016
Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in…
AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016
Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in other parts, primarily Taiz.* An informal cease-fire took hold in Saada, the home of the Houthi, prior to Monday’s announcement.
A joint military team also began demining operations along the Saudi-Yemeni border and the Saudis sent a large shipment of relief supplies to Saada. This is an abrupt turnaround in what has been a destructive border conflict in the north. Significantly, at the same time relief supplies arrived in Saada, a major Houthi figure in Qom, Iran, released a statement asking the Iranians not to interfere in the current situation in Yemen.
U.N. negotiator Ould Cheikh Ahmed arrived in Sanaa on Saturday after meeting with Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Riyadh and it appears Kuwait may host a new round of talks between the Yemeni parties to the conflict.
These hopeful developments seem to result from a realization that war will only further complicate the Yemeni situation and from hints of a broader shift in relations between the G.C.C. and Iran. The Saudi air campaign for the first time attacked al-Qaeda positions in Mukulla, Lahj, and Aden.
The inability of Hadi’s forces to effectively govern any part of the ‘liberated’ south and the slow pace of the war in the north gave greater weight to the danger of al-Qaeda and ISIS to exploit the Yemeni chaos. Hadi’s coalition is rife with internal factures that frequently erupt into open hostilities. This umbrella of forces cannot contain its political unity in friendly territory and would be completely incapable of controlling hostile territory in the north if it were to advance militarily.
In light of a possible settlement in Syria, positive public pronouncements from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, and the economic burden of the war in Yemen, the Saudis seem to have reached the conclusion that the time has arrived for negotiations. However, it may be a bit late for the king’s men to put humpty together again.Tags: yemen, houthi, saudi arabia, syria, iran