Iran - watch this guy

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - watch this guy
DATE: 07JUL2020

The first-generation of Iran’s militant clerics, who took control of the country after the Iranian revolution of 1979, are all either dead or dying off. Speculation about the process of succession is rife and is not only limited to who will capture the ultimate prize, the seat of the supreme leader. In a series of articles, AX will identify and assess key second-tier officials in the Islamic Republic who seem to have good prospects to make it all the way to the top.
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Iran - the IRGC eyeing the presidency?

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - the IRGC eyeing the presidency?
DATE: 07JUL2020

With the election of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s “Second Phase of the Revolution” is well under way in two of the three branches of government in the Islamic Republic. All eyes have now turned to the presidency, with elections less than one year away.
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Iran - secret project to produce aluminum for missiles

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Iran - secret project to produce aluminum for missiles
DATE: 24JUN2020

At the edge of the desert in North Khorasan province in northeast Iran, near the country’s largest deposit of bauxite, sits an aluminum production complex that the government has publicly hailed as a key part of its efforts to boost output of the metal.

But the site near the city of Jajarm is also home to a secret facility set up by Iran’s elite security force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, that has been producing aluminum powder for use in its missile program…
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Turkey - four member of French spy ring arrested in Istanbul

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - four member of French spy ring arrested in Istanbul
DATE: 24JUN2020

Four men have been arrested by Turkish authorities in Istanbul, allegedly for being members of a spy ring operated by an agent who collected information on extremist groups for France’s external spy agency. The arrests were reported on Tuesday by a newspaper with close links to the Turkish government…
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ANTIFA - background (part 2)

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: ANTIFA - background (part 2)
DATE: 24JUN2020

NOTE: This is Part II of a series on the history of the global Antifa movement. Part I described Antifa and explored the ideological origins of the group. Part I examines the history, tactics and goals of the movement in the United States.

  • "The only long-term solution to the fascist menace is to undermine its pillars of strength in society grounded not only in white supremacy but also in ableism, heteronormativity, patriarchy, nationalism, transphobia, class rule, and many others." — Mark Bray, "Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook," 2017.

  • "They're coming from other cities. That cost money. They didn't do this on their own. Somebody's paying for this.... What Antifa is doing is they're basically hijacking the black community as their army. They instigate, they antagonize, they get these young black men and women to go out there and do stupid things, and then they disappear off into the sunset." — Bernard Kerik, former commissioner of the New York City Police Department.

  • The coordinated violence raises questions about how Antifa is financed. The Alliance for Global Justice (AFGJ) is an organizing group that serves as a fiscal sponsor to numerous radical left-wing initiatives, according to Influence Watch, a research group that collects data on advocacy organizations, foundations and donors.... The Open Society Foundations, Tides Foundation, Arca Foundation, Surdna Foundation, Public Welfare Foundation, and the Brightwater Fund have all made contributions to AFGJ, according to Influence Watch.

  • One of the groups funded by AFGJ is called Refuse Fascism ... an offshoot of the Radical Communist Party (RCP).... The group's slogan states: "This System Cannot Be Reformed, It Must Be Overthrown!"

U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that the American government would designate Antifa — a militant "anti-fascist" movement — as a terrorist organization due to the violence that erupted at George Floyd protests across the United States.
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Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey and Russia - what’s going on?
DATE: 19JUN2020

The BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The mutual willingness of Washington and Ankara to rebuild their ties will be the key determinant of the future of the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations. Many things can change. As this piece goes to press and U.S.-Turkish relations continue to deteriorate, however, one can only expect that the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations will continue in a positive direction. Read More...

Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen and the implications for Russia in the area
DATE: 19JUN2020

Since Russia’s military intervention in Syria intensified in September 2015, many analysts have been busy trying to assess and understand Moscow’s role in the Near East (NE) and North Africa (NAF). When discussing Russia’s regional foreign policy, the following three points are key…
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Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey, Gulf countries and Libya: economics and division
DATE: 19JUN2020

Turkish support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war has added a new dimension to relations between Turkey and Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. But what impact have the growing geopolitical divides and diplomatic disagreements had on Turkish-Emirati and Turkish-Saudi economic relations?
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Boogaloo movement gains traction amid civil unrest

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Boogaloo movement gains traction amid civil unrest
DATE: 19JUN2020

Similar to how Black Lives Matter (BLM), ANTIFA and other left-wing extremist groups have used the civil unrest to gain traction, Boogaloo-affiliated right-wing, anti-government extremists are likely leveraging the current civil unrest across the United States to expand…
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LinkedIn first-ever use to spread malware

AX INTEL BULLETIN: LinkedIn first-ever use to spread malware
DATE: 18JUN2020

Cybersecurity researchers have uncovered what is believed to be the first-ever case of hackers using LinkedIn to infect the computers of targeted users with viruses. The hackers appear to have been sponsored by a government and to have targeted employees of carefully selected military contractors in central Europe.
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ANTIFA - a brief history

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: A Brief History of Antifa
DATE: 16JUN2020

Antifa's fight against right-wing extremists is a smokescreen. The real goal remains the elimination of the 'capitalist system….
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al-Qa'ida online magazine targets US values during C-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: al-Qa'ida online magazine targets US values
DATE: 17JUN2020

In the June edition of al-Qa’ida’s English-language online extremist magazine, One Ummah, the group devotes three sections to disparaging US society, economic policies, and treatment of the elderly during the COVID-19 pandemic..
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ANTIFA extremists among Seattle “Autonomous Zone”

AX INTEL BULLETIN: ANTIFA extremists among Seattle “Autonomous Zone”
DATE: 12JUN2020

A collective of protesters, including self-identified anarchist extremists and those affiliated with Antifa, continue to demonstrate against the Seattle Police Department through the occupation of a six-block area of the Capitol Hill neighborhood known as the “Autonomous Zone.” In an effort to de-escalate tensions after days of violent clashes between police and protesters
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ANTIFA - background (part 1)

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: ANTIFA - background (part 1)
DATE: 12JUN2020

NOTE: This is Part I of a series on the history of the global Antifa movement which describes Antifa and explores the ideological origins of the group. Part II examines the history, tactics and goals of the movement in the United States.

Empirical and anecdotal evidence shows that Antifa is, in fact, highly networked, well-funded and has a global presence…
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Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Iran - cyberattack against Israeli water supply
DATE: 09MAY2020

Iran is being linked to an attempted cyberattack last month aimed at disrupting water supplies in at least two locations in Israel as that country was seeking to contain a C-19 outbreak…
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France - Can’t recruit enough spies?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: France - Can’t recruit enough spies?
DATE: 08May2020

France’s primary external intelligence agency has expressed frustration with the overall poor quality of job applicants, as it tries to expand its staff by 20% in the coming years. The Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE) is France’s equivalent to the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the United Kingdom’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6). It is tasked with procuring secret political, military and economic information from foreign targets…
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Intel & COVID-19 vaccine hunt?

AX COVID-19 UPDATE: Intel & COVID-19 vaccine hunt?
DATE: 05MAY2020

Spy agencies from practically every country are participating in a worldwide competition to develop a vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic, by protecting their own biomedical secrets while trying to steal other nations’ research. Much like frantic efforts to secure personal protective equipment like masks and gloves, ongoing research to develop a vaccine against COVID-19 appears to be taking the form of a competition between nations. The country that first develops a successful vaccine to combat the epidemic is likely to emerge as…
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Mexico - Drug cartels using COVID-19 to build support

AX COVID-19 UPDATE: Mexico - Drug cartels using COVID-19 to build support
DATE: 4MAY2020

Drug cartels are organizing sophisticated ‘care package’ drives throughout Mexico in an attempt to build political capital and solidify their community support. Nearly every drug cartel in Mexico is organizing its own handout distribution activities, including the Sinaloa Cartel, the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), the Gulf Cartel, Los Viagras, and a host of splinter groups that came out of Los Zetas…
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Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020

In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold…
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DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19
DATE: 24APR2020

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has warned law enforcement departments across the United States that violent extremists are mobilizing against health restrictions imposed to combat the novel coronavirus. This is the third warning known to have been issued by the DHS in the past month about the potential of violence by domestic violent extremists…
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