Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Cease-fire and jihadist groups
DATE: 21MAR2016

The ongoing reduction in hostilities on the ground has transformed broader conflict dynamics across Syria, empowering Syria’s populist protest movement; eroding the success of al-Qaida’s strategic long game approach; and providing openings for a broader fight against ISIS…
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U.S. - SecState's Moscow Visit Unlikely to Bridge Divide on Syria

AX INTEL BULLETIN: U.S. - SecState's Moscow Visit Unlikely to Bridge Divide on Syria
DATE: 21MAR2016

While the U.S.-Russian collaboration in Syria is a work-in-progress, no major breakthroughs should be expected from DOS Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Moscow. Both countries endorse political negotiations as the means to reaching a peace agreement in Syria, but they remain divided over…
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Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism
DATE: 21MAR2016

The P.Y.D’s (Democratic Union Party - Kurdish opposition parties in Syria, accused by Turkey of being a terror group aligned with the Syrian branch of the PKK) move to declare an autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria has infuriated neighboring Turkey. The P.Y.D. move comes amid increasing terror attacks in Turkey, with the latest suicide bombing, this time perpetrated by ISIS, killing five in Istanbul over the weekend. The upsurge in terror attacks is likely to heighten Turkey’s sensitivity to the developments in neighboring Syria and further feed anti-Americanism.

The ruling A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party abbreviated officially AK Parti in Turkish) has been fueling the public perception that Turkey is increasingly falling victim to regional dynamics of sectarian, religious and ethnic violence in Syria. Except for the liberal circles, there is rarely any mention to the domestic roots of the intensifying fight between the P.K.K. and the state, and the growing ISIS threat.

Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly refers to the external roots of terrorism and foreign forces supporting Turkey’s enemies. The ruling party presents the rise of ISIS as the result of the West’s failure to pursue a more forceful policy against the Assad regime. The A.K.P. also portrays the P.K.K.’s intensifying attacks against Turkey as the result of P.Y.D.-American cooperation. Therefore, an increase in terror attacks on Turkish soil by P.K.K-.linked groups and ISIS is likely to strain Turkey-U.S. relations and strengthen Turkey’s opposition to the P.Y.D. gains in northern Syria.

Yemen - positive signs?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Yemen - positive signs?
DATE: 21MAR2016

Weeks after scattered rumors of direct contacts between the Houthi and the Saudis, reports have emerged of a cease-fire deal. The agreement has yet to receive official confirmation, but calm was restored in parts of the country over the weekend, while fighting continued in…
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Syria - Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Jabhat al-Nusra crackdown in Idlib
DATE: 14MAR2016

Ten days ago, under the relative calm of Syria’s cessation of hostilities, hundreds of civilians gathered in the Idlib town of Maarat al-Numan to celebrate the continuation of their populist revolution. For the first time in many months, the world heard Syrian people peacefully protesting in favor of change: “the people are one, and united, the revolution continues!” they chanted, while waving the three star revolutionary flag made popular by the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA). Similar demonstrations took place in over 100 other towns across the country that day, in a stark reminder to the world that five years of being brutally suppressed by their own government had not defeated their zeal for…
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