Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Turkey vs Russia in the drone wars
DATE: 27APR2020

In February Turkey began ramping up its military presence in Syria’s Idlib Province, sending a huge number of reinforcements to enforce the de-escalation zone outlined in the 2018 Sochi agreement with Russia and prevent the al-Assad regime from displacing millions of civilians toward the Turkish border as it sought to recapture the last major opposition stronghold…
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US-Iran and impact on Iraq

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: US-Iran and impact on Iraq
DATE: 21APR2020

While Iraq’s domestic political crisis continues, the geopolitical face-off between the U.S. and Iran has broadened out, ensnaring civic actors in a mainly military (non)confrontation. Militias have launched rockets at the Green Zone in Baghdad, which houses government buildings and all international representation, seemingly in line with the wishes of their strongest political and financial backers in Tehran…
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Yemen - rise of non-state actors

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Yemen - rise of non-state actors
DATE: 23DEC2019

Throughout 2019, non-state actors in Yemen were able to strategically improve their overall positions by using tactical military interventions and mediation efforts to their advantage. In the North, the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which overthrew the government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi in 2014, re-asserted their monopoly of violence over…
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DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: DHS warns of attacks by extremists re COVID-19
DATE: 24APR2020

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has warned law enforcement departments across the United States that violent extremists are mobilizing against health restrictions imposed to combat the novel coronavirus. This is the third warning known to have been issued by the DHS in the past month about the potential of violence by domestic violent extremists…
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Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Turkey - Terror attacks feeds local anti-Americanism
DATE: 21MAR2016

The P.Y.D’s (Democratic Union Party - Kurdish opposition parties in Syria, accused by Turkey of being a terror group aligned with the Syrian branch of the PKK) move to declare an autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria has infuriated neighboring Turkey. The P.Y.D. move comes amid increasing terror attacks in Turkey, with the latest suicide bombing, this time perpetrated by ISIS, killing five in Istanbul over the weekend. The upsurge in terror attacks is likely to heighten Turkey’s sensitivity to the developments in neighboring Syria and further feed anti-Americanism.

The ruling A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party abbreviated officially AK Parti in Turkish) has been fueling the public perception that Turkey is increasingly falling victim to regional dynamics of sectarian, religious and ethnic violence in Syria. Except for the liberal circles, there is rarely any mention to the domestic roots of the intensifying fight between the P.K.K. and the state, and the growing ISIS threat.

Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan constantly refers to the external roots of terrorism and foreign forces supporting Turkey’s enemies. The ruling party presents the rise of ISIS as the result of the West’s failure to pursue a more forceful policy against the Assad regime. The A.K.P. also portrays the P.K.K.’s intensifying attacks against Turkey as the result of P.Y.D.-American cooperation. Therefore, an increase in terror attacks on Turkish soil by P.K.K-.linked groups and ISIS is likely to strain Turkey-U.S. relations and strengthen Turkey’s opposition to the P.Y.D. gains in northern Syria.

Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Soleimani’s assassination & what’s next?
DATE: 03JAN2020

The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.

The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a dangerous tit-for-tat for months now, but this is a massive walk up the escalation ladder…
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Radical groups using COVID-19

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Radical groups using COVID-19
DATE: 23APR2020

The two main intelligence agencies of Belgium have published a declassified report in which they warn that domestic groups on the far left and far right of the political spectrum are using the COVID-19 pandemic to destabilize society. Among other things, these groups are spreading disinformation in order to…
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Baghdadi’s death and ISIS

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Baghdadi’s death and ISIS
DATE: 28OCT2019

The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is one of the biggest counter-terrorism achievements of the 21st century and by all accounts, a result of impressive cooperation between America and partners in Iraq, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, as significant as his death might be, this will not spell the end of ISIS — in Syria and Iraq or further afield…
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Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: Cyberwar - Iranian Naksha Warriors
DATE: 23APR

Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether?
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New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism

AX INTEL ANALYSIS: New obstacles to countering insurgency / terrorism
DATE: 23APR

The proliferation of COVID-19 across the Middle East and North Africa poses a potentially significant challenge to governments countering insurgency and terrorism, particularly from religiously inspired actors. In recent weeks, a broad array of jihadist movements affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have expounded on how the virus was an illustration of God’s power on earth and principally, a tool wielded in order to weaken the enemy and leave it vulnerable to attack…
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ISIL attacks catch Germany off guard

GermanTerrorMap

Germany stands out as refusing to admit to a reign of terror, partly because of the fallout generated for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door policy for masses of distressed refugees.

But the damage is not just political. German authorities recently admitted that while accepting a million refugees, 130,000 failed to register at the special reception centers and have dropped out of sight.
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How ISIL tested European security and intel services

ISIS_PROUD_7.16

The case of Muhammad Dalil serve as an object lesson, from which Europe’s counter-terrorism agencies could learn from this and other past experiences of this kind what not to do and the high importance of tightening operational intelligence and discipline in their ranks.
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Iran, nuclear weapons and the middle east. What's going on?

iran-nuclear
Iran’s overarching strategic goals of enhancing its security, prestige, and regional influence have led it to pursue capabilities to meet its civilian goals and give it the ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, if it chooses to do so. We do not know whether Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons, but it’s highly likely. If they do, their history says they’ll use them. Read More...

Muslim Brotherhood and Hitler?

unknown
The media says that terrorists like the Muslim Brotherhood are really just poor folks oppressed, trying to gain freedom while the area’s real religious minority—the Jews—are painted as the bad guys, the oppressors. But did you know the MB founder was a Hitler fan? Read More...

Background on al-Assad of Syria

assad
An eye doctor runs Syria. How did he inherit that place and who is helping him? Iran? The Brotherhood? What should the US do? Read More...

Iran helping Syria?

syria iran
A relationship between Shiite-led Iran and predominantly Sunni Syria might appear unlikely, but its real - these two (apparently) opposing sects are working together. Read More...

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