Syrian political process at a standstill

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syrian political process at a standstill
DATE: 29OCT2020

Following a rare summit in Istanbul on 27OCT, the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France agreed to support existing UN-led efforts to form a constitutional committee by late 2018, as the first phase of “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.” In addition to promoting the importance of continued de-escalation in Syria, France and Germany also stressed that such steps on the political process would be necessary before there can be any “real, sustainable, and credible return of refugees.”

From the summit’s final statements, it appears the gathering brought no new developments. UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, who will resign his position in November, had earlier told the UN Security Council on Oct. 26 that the Assad regime had refused to allow the UN any role in selecting members of a civil society component of the constitutional committee—presenting the process with “a serious challenge,” he said. In effect, that regime position means that the entire process may never even start and more than a year of UN-led efforts would have been for nothing.

Russia first proposed forming a constitutional committee and then forced it onto the UN agenda, but it appears to have little desire or ability to persuade Damascus to cooperate. With the political process at a standstill, the demilitarized zone in Syria’s northwest looks to be breaking down. Pro-Assad forces have fired nearly 100 artillery rockets at opposition positions over the past four days, while a coalition of small pro-al-Qaeda factions have launched at least four attacks on regime positions. Should hostilities there escalate, the political process as it stands would face a potentially insurmountable challenge.

Tags: syria, Russia, Turkey, germany, france, UN security council