Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west

AX INTEL BULLETIN: Syria - Pro-al-Assad forces continue west
DATE: 16JUL2018

Following its strategic victory in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate, the pro-Assad alliance is now on the march, having launched a new military offensive to the west in Quneitra, along the border with Israel-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. This conquest, conducted without protest from the international community, takes place as Israel, Jordan, and the U.S. have expressed hope that Russia has the will and capacity to, at most, remove Iran from Syria, or at minimum, force it far away from Syria’s southern borders. Either scenario, they hope, would better ensure stability, but neither is realistic.

Since pro-regime forces fired their first rounds in Daraa on 18JUN, militias trained, funded, and in many cases coordinated by Iran have played a leading role in securing Assad’s advance—many having embedded within Syria’s armed forces. Multiple tit-for-tat military incidents have occurred between Israel and pro-regime forces along the Golan, and Israel has shot down three pro-regime drones flying toward Israeli territory. One such drone, downed on 12JUL, was not Iranian, but Russian. Concurrently, Israel has also launched multiple airstrikes on Iran-linked targets elsewhere in Syria, reaching as far east as the Iraqi border in mid-June, when an IRGC facility was destroyed, killing more than 50 militiamen.

Seven years in, there is indeed little appetite within the international community to tackle the continued challenges posed by the crisis in Syria. But ceding the issue to a country whose recent track record presents it not as an ally but as a hostile adversary, looks worryingly like capitulation driven by short-term constraints at the expense of long-term interests.

Tags: syria, Israel, jordan, iran, golan heights, drone, assad